Credit investing is a business of nuance — of measuring reward versus risk not just in spread terms, but in real return terms, liquidity terms, and behavioural terms. It’s about distinguishing today’s price from tomorrow’s value. And it requires not only an understanding of macroeconomic drivers, but also humility about what we can and can’t know in the short run.
In markets defined by data and precision, it is often structure—not sentiment—that reveals the most consistent opportunities. One such structural inefficiency arises not from mispriced fundamentals or surprising macro releases, but from something far more mundane: the calendar.
Bond investors live in a world shaped by probabilities, not certainties. Yet at times, markets seem all too willing to price in a singular outcome—as if the macro landscape were stable, inflation predictable, and politics benign. Today is not one of those times.
Markets are inherently forward-looking, and yet they often get ahead of themselves. While macroeconomic fundamentals provide the foundation for investment decisions, it is sentiment and positioning that frequently drive the most attractive opportunities.
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